A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
